owners appear still not ready to lower their prices

This late summer put the balm to the heart of the proponents: 28,000 new homes sold in the second quarter of 2009, they are 30 more than during the same period in 2008. Over 12 months, the balance remains negative with 20 decrease in transactions. Would the crisis be behind us

Clearly, the structural difficulties of the residential market worsen, they, although professionals recognize the effectiveness of the stimulus package adopted in December 2008 in the heart of the disruption of economic and financial world. "Immediate reaction, diverse, strong, that say"recognizes for example Marc Pigeon, the new President of the Federation of builders sponsors. "A great arsenal of aid that allows households very modest become owners at a monthly cost lower than rent", continues Marc Piétri, promoter and President of Constructa. "A response that shows that, when you put the means, the policy is bearing fruit,"said economist Michel Mouillart." It was to save the production apparatus, this led in a satisfactory manner.

Half of new homes are now purchased by investors taking advantage of the law Scellier and his tax to deduct from their taxes 25 of the amount invested if rent the property for nine years. Some 25 to 30 of production is acquired by a primo-homebuyers who are for the doubling of the loan to zero rate VAT at 5.5 in the areas of urban renewal or Pass-land, that separates purchase of walls and purchase of the land. As proposed, "the House at 15 euros per day", drafted by Jean-Louis Borloo and rehabilitation riding by the Minister of housing Christine Boutin in April 2008 remains marginal with only 2,000 yards.

Plan limited in time

It is little imposed households that benefits the more the deduction of the interests of established loan in the summer 2007, a measure whose effectiveness is yet not unanimity, even if person dares to question out loud it costly for the State budget but expensive to the President of the Republic. Created in line with the conclusions of the Grenelle of the environment, to the owners as well as to donors, the eco-loan at zero rate of 30,000 euros to the maximum, is principal residences completed before January 1, 1990.

If the stimulus plan works, it still presents the default to be limited in time because the doubling of the rate loan zero during a purchase is for example guaranteed until the end of the year 2009. It leaves almost all of the former real estate market, where the number of transactions continues to fall further from 20 to 30, confirmed quarter by quarter. "The measures implemented are clearly designed to support activity and employment, analysis Henry Buzy-Cazaux, the Director of the Ecole supérieure des professions immobilières (Espi)." The construction of nine housing to create or preserve immediately between one and two jobs. This is to forget that the purchase of a former housing undertaken work or improvements also creates activity over a period of four years. The resale market for some 600,000 households per year, any help would be, of course, extremely expensive. "These transactions are essential to the fluidity of the residential market and the good health of the nine sector. The segment of "second-homebuyers" obliged to resell to buy is now blocked and the Paradox continues: be forced to relinquish their property by reason of a transfer, divorce..., owners appear still not ready to lower their prices. "Those who do not want to sell, plus those who dare not buy in the context of risk and increased unemployment that we know today", is the Director of the Espi. Unless a further decline of 15 of the price, he does not believe in a recovery.

He is not alone in thinking that from the economic crisis in 2010 may be, the diagnosis will have not changed. "The situation will be even worse, continues Michel Mouillart. Even if the activity is distributed without any known for how long, the new production will probably not exceed 310,000 units in 2009, it was only 370,000 in 2008 while the needs are, in my view, more than 400,000. It is at least 200,000 housing units which have not built over these past two years, while the lack was estimated before the global crisis, at more than 800,000. "The number of building permits granted, down 19 on 12 months at the end of July 2009, grows little optimism even if the proponents this poor result on account of the inertia of the sector and say that the numbers rise in the last two quarters of 2009. That could only dream of professionals A general recovery of the economy is now more efficient than additional aid to which the State no longer has the means.