448 billionThe figures are now overwhelming

Long term, the situation is untenable. The US consumer frenzy can no longer be funded by the rest of the world, especially Asia. This is the conclusion prepared on several occasions by the international monetary Fund (IMF), in recent years, without no fundamental action was taken.

The Asian financial crisis of 1997 and 1998 (read here) is at the origin of a unfortunate drift. Indeed, the US trade deficit continuously widening while the Asian countries accumulated record surpluses inflating their reserves. These emerging countries deliberately favoured the establishment of reserves for security reasons. Strong this mattress, they could face a possible new crisis in their balance of payments without the assistance of an IMF discredited in their eyes. In brief in the extreme, these emerging countries in Asia, which must be added the Japan, prevented an appreciation of their currencies to maintain their competitiveness in the export, mainly to the United States and Europe. Oil monarchies of the Gulf, but also the Brazil, the India and the Russia are all based on this model. Many European and American political leaders gripes against the undervaluation of the currencies of the commercially surplus remained dead letter.

6.448 billion

The figures are now overwhelming. Plotted to about 1,500 billion in 2000, foreign exchange reserves reached 6.448 billion at the end of 2007, according to the IMF. Nothing that in Asia, including Japan, they went about 800 million dollars to 3.940 billion. If the countries of the Middle East ($341 billion), the two areas they held only two thirds of the world's reserves! Based on the balance of current payments, IMF has established that the United States have been responsible for in 2007 49.2 of the imports of capital in the world. Who were the exporters China, at 21.3, followed by the Germany (14.5) and the Japan (12.1), Saudi Arabia (5.5) and Russia (4.4).

System destabilizing

As noted by the US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in 2005, Asia increased during the 1990s a surplus savings-investment deficit. This resulted in an excess of global savings that is directed to the United States to finance the deficit in their balance of current payments. Patrick Artus, head of research at Natixis, the current system is destabilizing. "When the United States external deficit, the support of the dollar is not reached by the United States but by surplus countries (Asia, oil exporters) who buy assets in dollars and accumulate reserves." This led to an increase of global liquidity, and allows the United States to pay their debt at very low interest rates, which calls for further increase domestic demand, where a new increase in the external deficit.

To attempt to correct these imbalances, proceedings international G7 and IMF head first favored a depreciation of the dollar to reinvigorate U.S. exports. At the same time, authorities European and American policies did not cease to ask China, to the Japan and the Gulf countries to let their currencies appreciate and promote their internal demand increased. So far, their wishes have not been fulfilled. Fact remains that each is aware of the explosive situation in which the United States. What would happen if the dollar collapsed and that US interest rates flew An earthquake which nobody wants.